June's Hike and the Slow Erosion of Surprise

Another quarter point in June. I barely registered it, which worried me slightly more than the hike itself did.

Somewhere in the last year, rate rises stopped being events and started being background noise. That's either good discipline, the kind where you've already stress tested everything and know your position holds, or bad complacency, the kind where you've just stopped paying attention because paying attention got tiring.

I went back and checked. Turned out to be the first one, mostly. My buffers are still fine. But I made a note to actually check again properly rather than just assume, because the gap between those two mental states is smaller than it feels from the inside.

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