Rethinking Leverage Now That the Cutting Cycle Reversed

Honest admission this month. I got a bit more comfortable with leverage last year than I probably should have, three rate cuts in a row will do that to anyone's risk appetite, and some of the borrowing decisions I made assumed, implicitly if not explicitly, that the direction of travel was settled.

Three hikes since February have broken that assumption pretty clearly. Nothing in my portfolio is in genuine trouble, the buffers I've maintained throughout this whole four year stretch are still holding. But I'm rebuilding those buffers more deliberately now than I was six months ago, and being more conservative about how much new debt I take on for anything I buy from here.

Rate cycles reverse. I've now watched it happen in both directions within four years. Worth actually internalizing that instead of just knowing it abstractly.

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