The Hike That (Probably) Ends the Cycle

Another quarter point, bringing the cash rate to 4.35%, the highest it's been in over a decade. Everyone's calling this the peak. I've heard that six times this year already, so I'm not fully trusting the label until a few months of holds actually confirm it.

Still. If it is the top, it's worth sitting with what the year actually did. Rates roughly quadrupled from where they started, and Brisbane prices didn't fall. Vacancy didn't loosen. Rents kept climbing. The playbook that used to say rate hikes cool the market just didn't apply here, not with this little supply sitting underneath demand this strong.

Whether that holds into next year is a different question. For now, I'm treating 4.35% as the number to stress test against, whether or not it turns out to be the actual ceiling.

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