Four months now at 3.60%, and the general consensus among the people I read is that the cutting cycle is done, or close to it, from here. I've learned not to put too much weight on consensus, given how wrong the market was about the timing of both the original hiking cycle and the eventual cuts.
That said, I'm not bracing for a hike either. Nothing in the inflation data I'm seeing suggests upward pressure building. I think the honest position is just genuine uncertainty, and building a portfolio that survives either outcome rather than betting heavily on one.
Feels like a strange thing to write after three years of much stronger opinions about where rates were heading. Maybe that's just what a market in genuine equilibrium looks like, for once.