Nine months now at 4.35%. This is the longest stretch of stability since the hiking cycle started back in 2022, long enough that I've genuinely started planning around it rather than hedging against a surprise move either direction.
Inflation's grinding lower, slowly. Not fast enough to trigger a cut yet, apparently, but the direction seems settled even if the timing isn't. I don't think anyone credible is forecasting another hike from here.
What that means practically is the uncertainty premium I'd been pricing into every decision for two years is finally starting to shrink. Doesn't mean I know exactly when the first cut lands. Just means the range of realistic outcomes has narrowed enough that I'm comfortable making longer-dated decisions again.