Five hikes since last May. I've genuinely stopped being surprised by them, which I think is its own kind of risk. Complacency dressed up as experience.
The commentary keeps saying we're near the top. People have been saying that since hike three.
What I actually watch now isn't the RBA statement, it's what happens at the auctions two weeks after. Clearance rates haven't cracked. Buyers adjusted their expectations faster than I expected them to, tightened the budget, kept turning up anyway.
Maybe the ceiling really is close this time. Maybe it isn't. I've stopped trying to time the exact peak and started just making sure my properties can survive a couple more hikes if they come. That's a more useful question than guessing the RBA's mind.