I keep expecting the cash flow versus capital gains calculus to shift meaningfully once rates peak. Cash flow becomes king when money's expensive, that's the textbook version.
Except growth hasn't stopped either. Brisbane prices haven't cracked despite the fastest hiking cycle in decades. So the growth investors haven't really been punished for staying the course, and the cash flow investors haven't been especially rewarded for their caution beyond just sleeping better at night.
Maybe that's the actual lesson. The textbook version assumes rates are the dominant force in the market. In a genuine supply shortage, they're a strong force, not the only one. Both strategies are surviving this cycle better than the theory predicted, mostly because the thing propping up the market isn't credit conditions, it's simply not enough homes.