Autumn's usually a quieter season than spring, but this year it's carrying more activity than I'd expect given that. Rate cuts are clearly pulling buyers back in faster than the seasonal pattern would predict on its own.
The approvals number I flagged back in February is still trending the right way. But approvals aren't supply, they're a promise of supply eighteen months to two years out, and in the meantime demand is picking up in real time while actual stock on the ground hasn't moved.
That combination, rising demand against still-constrained current supply, is exactly the setup that drove the price growth of the last two years. I don't see anything in this quarter's data suggesting that dynamic has actually changed yet, whatever the approval numbers might eventually deliver.